Революция беспилотников

26.02.2014

Революция беспилотников

Ричард Виттл: «Мы вступили в новую технологическую эпоху. Как общество, мы должны понять особенности новой технологии и установить новые правила игры». 

В последние годы мир переживает бум беспилотников. Их активнейшим образом используют военные и спецслужбы. Эта технология находит и коммерческое применение: в США дроны применяют для управления дорожным движением и борьбы с пожарами, при проведении спасательных операций. Крупнейший интернет-магазин мира Amazon заявил о том, что планирует использовать беспилотники для доставки покупок своим клиентам. К 2015 году в США должны появиться специальные правила, регулирующие использования дронов для коммерческих и личных целей. 

Ричард Виттл, научный сотрудник Международного центра имени Вудро Вильсона (Richard Whittle, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars), специализируется на теме беспилотных летательных аппаратов, или дронов. В скором будущем издательством Henry Holt and Company of New York будет опубликована его новая книга «Predator. Тайные корни революции дронов» (Predator: The Secret Origins of the Drone Revolution), где рассказывается об истории создания и использования БПЛА MQ-1 Predator. 

Алекс Григорьев: Почему «революция дронов» началась с Predator? 

Ричард Виттл: Predator стал настоящим прорывом. Военные США и других стран использовали различные типы дронов на протяжении многих лет, но без особого успеха. Беспилотники считались нишевой технологией – не очень важной, но интересной. 

В 1994 году появился Predator – первый дрон, который мог находиться в воздухе длительное время. В 2001 году ВВС США оснастили его оружием, а ЦРУ решило использовать его для охоты на Усаму бин Ладена. 

В Афганистане этот аппарат смог выследить муллу Омара – лидера Талибана. Predator наблюдал за ним несколько часов. Во время преследования дрон успешно поразил ракетами машину с телохранителями Омара – это была первая в истории атака, совершенная беспилотным летательным аппаратом (БПЛА). 

А.Г.: В кино показывают, что беспилотники обладают невероятными возможностями… 

Р.В.: Многие вещи, которые Голливуд рассказывает о беспилотниках, не соответствуют действительности. Например, после просмотра некоторых фильмов может сложиться впечатление, что дроны оснащены невероятно мощными камерами, способными распознать лицо человека на расстоянии в несколько миль. На самом деле видео, снятое БПЛА, больше напоминает просмотр футбольного матча с дирижабля. Кроме обычных камер, на дронах установлены инфракрасные. Но на этих изображениях человек появляется только в виде светящейся фигуры. 

А.Г.: Как же тогда опознали муллу Омара? 

Р.В.: Это ключевой момент, который многие не понимают. Сами по себе дроны не находят цели – это не роботы, ими управляют дистанционно. Операторы БПЛА обычно используют разведданные, полученные вполне традиционными способами. 

Если говорить об истории с муллой Омаром, то БПЛА находился над лагерем муллы под Кандагаром. Его камеры зафиксировали, что три автомобиля – в том числе грузовик с вооруженными людьми в кузове – выехали из лагеря. Потом эти машины подъехали к одному из домов в Кандагаре, в котором Омар предположительно жил. Это и ряд других фактов позволили предположить, что возможно, в одной из этих машин находился мулла Омар. 

То есть эффективность использования дронов в первую очередь зависит от эффективности разведки. 

А.Г.: В последнее время складывается впечатление, что дроны превратились чуть ли ни в основное средство для борьбы с терроризмом. США используют их в Афганистане, Пакистане, Йемене, Сомали… 

Р.В.: Я думаю, что этот аспект использования дронов, так же как и дискуссии о правилах их использования для гражданских нужд демонстрируют, что мы вступили в новую технологическую эпоху. Как общество, мы должны понять особенности новой технологии и установить новые правила игры. Но пока мы этого не сделали. Мы не можем определить, как правильно использовать эту технологию для борьбы с террористами и для доставок заказов. 

А.Г.: Каково будущее дронов для вооруженных сил США? 

Р.В.: Это настоящая революция, которая происходит в последние годы. Predator начал эту революцию, потому что показал военным, как потенциально можно использовать эту технологию. Сейчас в составе ВС США примерно 8 тысяч таких аппаратов – а все начиналось примерно с 20-ти. Военные не то что «подсели» на них, но они стали очень серьезно на них рассчитывать. Потому что одна из наиболее важных вещей на войне – знать, где находится противник и что он делает. БПЛА как раз очень полезны в этом качестве. 

А.Г.: Я слышал мнение, что технология беспилотных летательных аппаратов достаточно проста – хотя бы потому, что любой может купить радиоуправляемый игрушечный вертолет. Это правда? 

Р.В.: Нет, она более сложна, чем может показаться. Некоторые люди могут подумать, что, если американские дроны летают на другом конце земли, управлять этой техникой не сложнее, чем подписаться на спутниковое ТВ. Но очень немногие государства мира способны использовать БПЛА так, как это делает Пентагон. У каждой страны есть свои цели и задачи в этой области, а кроме того, это дорогое удовольствие. 

Авиаконструктор, вероятно, может сказать, что дрон – достаточно простой летательный аппарат. И он достаточно хрупкий. Тот же Predator с трудом летает в сильный ветер или в условиях обледенения. 

Кроме того, беспилотники не способны самостоятельно защитить себя. Во время войны в Боснии немцы использовали дрон для разведки. Однажды они обратили внимание, что дрон сотрясает вибрация. Операторы развернули камеру и обнаружили, что к дрону подлетел сербский вертолет, и сидящий в вертолете человек стреляет по нему из пулемета. Соединенные Штаты активно использовали дроны в конфликтах, где они контролировали воздушное пространство, а противником были инсургенты, у которых нет очень сложных систем противовоздушной обороны. Беспилотники будет невозможно использовать против армий, обладающих современными системами ПВО.  

А.Г.: В 2011 году на территории Ирана потерпел крушение американский беспилотник. Сможет ли Иран скопировать эти технологии?  

Р.В.: Я серьезно сомневаюсь в этом. Прежде всего потому, что электроника и программное обеспечение БПЛА достаточно сложны. Кроме того, для управления дроном необходима постоянная прямая связь между оператором и летательным аппаратом. Если между ними возникает препятствие, например, высокое здание или гора, связь может прерваться. Американские дроны управляются с помощью спутников, то есть для создания копии этого БПЛА необходима развитая космическая инфраструктура. 

А.Г.: Некоторые эксперты предполагают, что через какое-то время управляемая авиация устареет и уступит свое место дронам. Что вы об этом думаете? 

Р.В.: Я думаю, что фантазия всегда богаче реальности. В 1930-е годы люди считали, что в скором времени появятся летающие автомобили. Я не представляю, как будет работать система аэроконтроля, если водители начнут взлетать, выбираясь из дорожных пробок – ведь очевидно, что будет много крушений. 

На мой взгляд, в будущем бесплотники будут использовать намного более активно, будет намного больше автоматизации… Но я не считаю, что они заменят авиацию. И я уверен, что пройдет очень и очень много времени, прежде чем обычные люди решатся отправиться в воздушное путешествие на борту лайнера без экипажа. Психологически мы к этому не готовы.




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